The Unraveling Of Specialty Coffee
How climate change-induced impacts are starting to reshape morning routines
The Science Of Specialty
Specialty coffee is a high-quality coffee formally graded through what is called the Q-grading scale– an international 100-point standard developed by the Coffee Quality Institute in the early 2000s.
- 90–100 points: Outstanding quality
- 85–89.99 points: Excellent
- 80–84.99 points: Very good (minimum for specialty grade)
- Below 80: Not considered specialty
To earn the “specialty” label, coffee beans must score 80 points or higher, evaluated across a set of criteria such as aroma, flavor, acidity, balance, aftertaste, etc. And who scores the beans, you may ask? The answer is Q-graders, who many could consider as the sommeliers of the coffee world.
A unique role, Q-graders are professionally certified experts trained to evaluate coffee quality with high precision. Their certification consists of about 20 sensory tests that assess a person’s ability to identify aromas, detect flavor nuances, and distinguish quality across all stages of production, from green (unroasted) beans to the final cup. Today, there are only around 10,000 licensed Q-graders worldwide.
Impacts on Specialty Coffee Production
Similar to wine, specialty coffee production is highly sensitive to local climatic conditions, particularly during the vegetative and reproductive phases of the plant. As temperatures increase and precipitation shortages become more prevalent, these changes have negative impacts on flowering, fruiting, and bean quality. Coffee plants thrive in a specific temperature range, and when things get too hot, they struggle to grow and become more susceptible to pests and diseases. Coffee production also relies on predictable amounts of rainfall, and when there’s too little, plants can wither away.
While an obvious consequence of these climate impacts is yield loss, changes to flowering and ripening cycles also lead to inconsistencies in taste and aroma from one harvest to the next. For specialty coffee farmers, these inconsistencies are significant because they result in small imperfections that can lower a coffee’s Q score and degrade its value on the market. As a result, traditional ways of growing are no longer guaranteed to produce the best results.
This too has notable socio-economic implications, as a majority of specialty coffee farmers are smallholders, meaning they rely solely on these crops for their livelihoods. As climatic conditions become more variable, the unfortunate reality is that many smallholder farmers lack the financial and technological resources to adapt to these changes effectively. Adaptation measures, such as the implementation of shading trees or irrigation systems, are not exactly cheap or accessible to these communities. With governments failing to provide financial support to smallholder farmers, the long-term sustainability of specialty coffee production is potentially at risk.
Beyond The Cup
Worldwide, coffee is the second most traded commodity after petroleum products. Global production has risen steadily over the past decades – from an estimated 4.5 million tonnes in 1961 to more than 11 million tonnes in 2023, a 40.9% increase according to FAO data. Yet beneath this growth lies a mounting set of challenges that extend far beyond the tasting table.
As climate pressures intensify, water scarcity is becoming a growing concern in many coffee-producing regions, since estimates suggest that producing one cup of coffee requires about 140 litres of water. In a perfect world, the distribution of these climate change-induced impacts would be shared fairly among all stakeholders involved in a globalized supply chain. However, when it comes to a trade-driven dynamic seen in the coffee industry, increased consumer demand in the Global North results in the unfair exploitation of natural resources in the Global South. Thus, exacerbating the stressed condition of already stressed water basins.
The geography of cultivation is also shifting, with farms moving to higher elevations or latitudes in search of cooler, more stable conditions. But these shifts come with complex trade-offs: expanding coffee production into new areas can create competition between reforestation goals, biodiversity conservation, and agricultural expansion
Looking Ahead
As the realities of climate change reshape where and how coffee can grow, the very definition of “specialty” may also need to evolve. Maintaining strict quality standards in a warming world will require not only scientific innovation and new farming practices, but also a recognition of the creativity and care that will allow coffee to endure.
Furthermore, despite its global economic importance, the world is shockingly underinvesting in coffee agricultural research and development. In the global south, investment is estimated to be $115 million/year, with 90% of this investment coming from the public sector and 10% from the private sector. This equates to $0.0048 (half a cent) for every dollar of coffee produced globally.
For smallholder farmers who rely on specialty coffee production to support their families, this lack of financial support hurts their ability to adapt to climate change pressures. Companies profiting from their labor need to do their part by reversing this trend of underinvestment if they hope to continue to supply their products on the market.
Credits: Image 1 - Dwayne Badua; Image 2 - René PorterM; Image 3 - PROJETO CAFÉ GATO-MOURISCO; Image 4 - Karl Fredricksona
