Changing the Map: How Climate Change is Altering the Wine Industry
W(h)ining about hot summers? Just wait until there’s no wine left to cry into
Credit: Wolfgang Hasselmann
Margaux
Last December, my boyfriend and I had the chance to visit Alsace. We spent a couple of days in Strasbourg and Molsheim, a charming little village. None of us had been to Alsace before, and we loved it: we wandered through the Christmas markets, ate far too many flammekueches and cheesy dishes and, of course, drank plenty of wine. The Gewürztraminer, Sylvaner, and Riesling did not disappoint.
On a whim, we stopped for a tasting at Domaine Neumeyer, where we met Marie, a winemaker who recently took over the family business with her brother. She poured us an exceptional Riesling and even an earthy Pinot noir (not typical of the region), both made with grapes grown on a small hill right across the street. As we talked, I mentioned my work as a researcher and asked if she had noticed any day-to-day changes due to climate change. Without hesitation, she told us the harvest keeps creeping earlier each year – a clear consequence of rising temperatures. It made me wonder: will we still be drinking wine in 50 years?
While wine may not be a product that everyone consumes, it’s safe to say that it plays a significant role in global agricultural production. Grapes, the foundation of all wines, are the world’s third most valuable horticultural crop, after potatoes and tomatoes. In 2023, 74.6 million tonnes of grapes were harvested from 7.1 million hectares, of which 45.8% were transformed into wine.
Wine is a unique agricultural product because much of its reputation and market value derives from its region of production. Different regions and thus different climatic conditions have a strong effect on grape composition, resulting in a variety of flavors and qualities. For centuries, the best wine-growing regions have been defined by a delicate balance of climate, soil, and tradition. But as our planet warms, that balance is being upended.
So, will wine survive climate change?
The short answer is YES, we will still be able to drink wine in 50 years. However, the wine industry will certainly look and operate differently than it does now. Since we are on track to reach the 1.5C warming target, the wine industry – like many other industries – has already started to be affected by the consequences of climate change. Let’s briefly break down how:
Reduction in Yields
One obvious consequence of warming is drought: higher temperatures lead to more frequent dry episodes and increase grape exposure to sunburn. While vines can benefit from moderate water stress, excessive water stress pushes them beyond their tolerance, reducing yields and threatening long-term vineyard health.
Other climate hazards, such as torrential rains, floods, and even wildfires are all indirect consequences of rising temperatures that can disrupt production and reduce yield. And while warmer winters may sound like a silver lining – with vines becoming less vulnerable to frost – this benefit is quickly outweighed by the fact that vines begin growing earlier in the season, making them more exposed to damaging spring frosts.
In 2021, harvest in the french region of Burgundy was reduced by close to a third (compared to the 2016-2020 period) after vineyards were hit by a late frost. Just two years ago, global wine production dropped to its lowest level in over 60 years, after production was hit by a range of extreme weather events.
Flavor & Quality
Rising temperatures also reshape the flavor and quality of wine by causing grapes to ripen weeks earlier than they did decades ago. As the climate warms and the growing season shrinks, acids in the wine dissociate more, raising pH levels and reducing overall acidity. At the same time, grapes accumulate more sugar, which translates into higher alcohol levels in the finished wine. Nowadays, it’s not uncommon to see wines at 14% alcohol by volume (ABV), whereas a couple of years ago, they were at 11%.
These chemical shifts alter the sensory profile: red wines become fruitier, while white wines lose some of their crisp citrus notes. And while a higher pH can soften sharp or "aggressive" flavors, wines risk losing freshness when acidity falls too low.
Credit: Van Leeuwen et al. (2024)
Elevated UV-B adds another layer of complexity: in red wines, it can boost skin phenolics and enhance structure, but in whites it tends to reduce quality and accelerate atypical aging.
Pests & Diseases
As is common with climate change, warmer winters and overall higher temperatures can allow pests and diseases to survive and spread more easily, posing new threats to vines. The increased frequency and intensity of pests will force viticulturists to increase their usage of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, leading to greater soil and water pollution.
Additionally, the severity of fungal diseases, such as downy and powdery mildews, is projected to increase due to changes in humidity and precipitation. These types of diseases are treated through the use of fungicides, which, like pesticides, have harmful environmental impacts on soil health, biodiversity, and water quality.
Harvest & Labor
On top of the physical impacts on vineyards, the increased frequency of heatwaves in wine-making regions is causing workers to navigate compressed harvest windows and unsafe working conditions. As the optimal harvest window becomes smaller, it creates a logistical challenge that requires more intensive and potentially more expensive labor management to pick the grapes at the exact point of desired maturity.
Therefore, growing conditions in current winemaking regions are becoming less favorable. The figure below shows how this shift could unfold over time:
Sgubin et al. (2022) - Supplementary Material.
Projected anomaly in average suitability (S) for Vitis vinifera compared to 1980-2009, shown for three time periods: 2010-2039; 2040-2069; and 2070-2099, under the RCP4.5 scenario.
Suitability clearly decreases across the Mediterranean basin while suitable conditions shift northward to higher latitudes. Of course, this is just for one scenario and one type of grape cluster, but it illustrates the broader challenges growers will face. The key question is: how can they respond?
Vineyard adaptation
Well, not all hope is lost. There are adaptation solutions that winemakers and producers can – and sometimes already have – put in place. These strategies range from adjusting vineyard practices and rethinking grape varieties to improving winemaking methods.
Coping with higher temperatures
One response to adapt to a warmer climate is to move vineyards: either to higher latitudes – or to higher altitudes in mountainous regions, as shown on the map above. At elevation, grapes are less exposed to heat events and benefit from cooler nights, allowing the grapes to ripen more evenly. These relocations, however, carry significant logistical, social, and economic costs.
Within existing vineyards, lower-cost measures such as canopy management techniques can also help. Installing shade nets or adjusting leaf coverage protects grapes from sunburn and extreme heat. Viticulturists are also starting to experiment with hybrid grape varieties that are heat/disease-resistant in an effort to avoid relocation. However, there is definitely a time and financial cost to doing so. Grapevines take up to five years to produce their first crop, plus several more years for the wines to ferment.
Preserving flavor and quality
Delaying vine development (phenology) is one way to preserve flavor and avoid premature ripening. This can be achieved by switching to rootstocks with longer growth cycles, adopting late-ripening grape varieties, or modifying training systems to slow growth. Growers can also turn to varieties that are naturally less sensitive to heat and sugar accumulation to preserve balance and freshness.
Adaptation can extend beyond the vineyard through changes in winemaking methods – applying corrective techniques after harvest. For instance, winemakers can remove excess sugar or alcohol directly from the wine, or even add acids to restore balance in pH. These methods don’t prevent climate impacts in the vineyard, but they can help maintain the style and drinkability of the final product.
Looking Ahead
Ultimately, adaptation in the wine industry is multifaceted and will require a combination of strategies– with innovation at its core! A good example is the Parcelle 52 project, launched in Bordeaux in 2009. The project evaluated 52 grape varieties (31 red and 21 white) to test their response to warming conditions and assess how much earlier each variety ripens to provide winegrowers with practical guidance for diversifying and future-proofing their vineyards. Projects like these will need to continue to receive funding to aid the industry in its transition to more sustainable practices.
As mentioned previously, climate change may actually result in some positive impacts for previously marginal or even impossible regions for winemaking. New wine-growing countries, such as Denmark, Belgium, and even parts of Canada, have the potential to emerge and tap into new economic opportunities. While we’re all for spreading the wealth, there’s reason to question whether or not this shift in the market is sustainable. In particular, biodiversity could be threatened if these new vineyards are established on undeveloped land that requires deforestation to clear existing habitats. Furthermore, the development of new irrigation systems for these vineyards could also increase competition for freshwater resources among nearby communities. It’s not to say that winemakers shouldn’t explore new frontiers, but that all factors should be considered when doing so.
At the end of the day, the great grape migration is more than just a novelty–it's a sign of a fundamental shift in our global agricultural landscape. The wines you love might soon taste different, and the regions that produce them may be a little further north than you're used to. For the industry, it's a stark reminder that even the most deeply rooted traditions are not immune to the forces of a changing climate. The question isn't whether wine will survive, but what the new map of the wine world will look like.
